The simple answer is no. Northeast Florida’s market isn’t crashing; it’s recalibrating.

Is the Florida housing market heading for a crash, or are the headlines exaggerating? If you’ve been reading the news lately, you’ve probably seen plenty of “sky is falling” takes on Florida real estate. But when we zoom in on the numbers here in Northeast Florida, the picture looks less dramatic and more nuanced.

Let’s break down where things stand in Duval, Clay, St. Johns, and Nassau Counties, what’s changed since last year, and what the trends suggest for the months ahead.

Prices show a modest dip. As of July 2025, the median sales price in Northeast Florida sits at $370,000, about 2.7% lower than in July 2024.

  • For buyers, that dip means a little more breathing room than they had a year ago.
  • For sellers, it’s not the same red-hot market of 2021 to 2022, but most homeowners who bought after 2022 still hold equity when you look at long-term price trends dating back to 2017.

“More choices for buyers and stable equity for sellers make this a healthier market.”

So while prices have softened, this isn’t a wipeout; it’s more of a market adjustment.

Inventory gives buyers more options. Active listings have increased to 10,600, up from just under 9,800 a year ago, representing an 8% rise. More inventory gives buyers options and puts some pressure on prices. Pending sales have remained in the 200 to 250 range per week. Activity dipped late summer but has recently picked back up, a positive sign heading into fall.

Mortgage rates don’t follow the Fed. Speculation about Fed rate cuts has grabbed attention, but mortgage rates track more closely with the 10-year Treasury yield. Even so, a Fed move can boost confidence, nudging hesitant buyers back into the market.

Mortgage demand is building. Mortgage application data shows plenty of activity, but many buyers have not yet moved forward. That suggests pent-up demand. If confidence improves this fall, more of those applications could turn into real sales.

Northeast Florida’s market isn’t crashing; it’s recalibrating. Prices have cooled, inventory has grown, and demand is waiting on the sidelines. This fall will reveal whether those buyers finally make their move.

If you’re considering buying or selling and have questions about what these shifts mean for you, I’d be happy to chat. You can reach me at (904) 405-1995 or Jeff@PursuitRealEstate.com. I’m here to help you figure out the best next step with ease.