The simple answer is no. Northeast Florida’s market isn’t crashing; it’s recalibrating.

Is the Florida housing market really crashing? If you’ve been reading headlines lately, you’ve probably seen plenty of “sky is falling” takes on Florida real estate. But when we focus on the numbers here in Northeast Florida, the reality looks less dramatic and far more balanced.

Here’s a closer look at conditions in Duval, Clay, St. Johns, and Nassau Counties, how things compare to last year, and what the trends suggest for the months ahead:

Prices show a gentle dip. As of July 2025, the median sales price in Northeast Florida is $370,000, approximately 2.7% lower than it was in July 2024.

  • For buyers, that dip provides a little more breathing room than last year.
  • For sellers, while it’s no longer the frenzy of 2021 to 2022, most homeowners who bought before 2022 still hold strong equity.

Long-term price data dating back to 2017 shows stability, making this more of an adjustment than a crash.

Inventory gives buyers more choices. Active listings have grown to 10,600 homes, up about 8% from 9,800 a year ago. This increase gives buyers more choices and stronger negotiating power. For sellers, it means pricing and presentation are more important than ever, since buyers have options.

Meanwhile, 200 to 250 homes are going under contract each week. That’s slightly below last year’s pace, but still indicates steady activity, with potential for more movement this fall as buyers respond to economic news.

Mortgage rates move beyond headlines. Mortgage rates don’t follow the Federal Reserve System (Fed) directly; they’re more closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield. Even so, rate cuts can boost confidence, and confidence often sparks action.

Buyers are on the sidelines. Mortgage application data shows a high level of interest, but many buyers are holding back for now. That signals pent-up demand. If conditions improve this fall, we could see a shift from “just looking” to “ready to buy,” which would quickly tip the balance back in favor of sellers.

The Northeast Florida market isn’t crashing, it’s recalibrating. Prices have cooled slightly, inventory has opened up, and buyers remain cautious but engaged. The real question is when those hesitant buyers decide to step in. When they do, momentum could swing back toward sellers.

Every market shift brings both challenges and opportunities. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just watching your home’s value, reach out at (904) 405-1995 or email at Jeff@PursuitRealEstate.com. I’d be glad to walk you through what today’s numbers mean for you.